News & Politics
Wonder what phase two will look like?
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Ukraine just announced the first phase of a counteroffensive in the east
GEN Biletsky Commander of the 3rd Army Corps “Good news is coming, but for now, our actions require silence. The Russians have acknowledged these advances with one milblogger warning that these forces aren’t just scared conscripts, but battle-hardened mechanized units who are back to their favorite activity – killing Russians.
Sources
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/84556
https://deepstatemap.live/en#1....1/49.0263881/38.0072
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/84190
https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/74963
https://t.me/notes_veterans/29811
https://t.me/rybar/82966
https://t.me/ab3army/7468
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat....us/20997675854283981
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All things point towards more good news coming from the front
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Ukraine is setting the conditions for phase four of their counteroffensive in the east, operation Vivaldi. Put simply, there’s more good news to come. Russia’s challenges in that direction aren’t improving and there’s a fair argument they’re getting worse. It’s becoming clear that they cannot keep front line elements supplied and the chain of commanded needed to fixt that is just broken.
That’s really positive for Ukraine but we can’t lose sight of the larger picture which isn’t great.
Russian deep strikes have intensified and become more complex as it looks like Russia hopes to shut off power, heat and water to Ukraine’s largest cities this winter. That’s a humanitarian disaster looming in the very near future.
Sources
https://t.me/ab3brigade/15547
https://t.me/romanov_92/56218
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat....us/21059618251542777
https://t.me/severnnyirezerv/2643
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/ana....lytics/russia-s-new-
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/1....0/02/world/europe/ru
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This problem affects everything
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So there’s a major issue in southern Ukraine. The soldiers don’t have enough fuel. Now they’re not completely out but right on that line. Some units have so little that troops are having to stay in position for months on end. That’s a problem.
This affects everything from combat operations to training, logistics to medical evacuation.
So to help break down what’s happening with this, we’re joined today by Rachel Jamison of Protect a Volunteer.
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All Russian targets are vulnerable
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Ukraine just carried out significant strikes in the St. Petersburg area on the opening day of the International Economic Forum. An oil refinery was hit, giving quite the show to the guests traveling in from around the world and then a corvette was struck in the same area. These targets are 1,000 km inside of Russian territory and their getting hit highlights the challenge that Russia is experiencing in defending all of their territory from Ukrainian drones.
Kyiv Independent article: https://kyivindependent.com/st....-petersburg-oil-term
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The race is on to see who adapts faster
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So Russian logistics continue to burn across the occupied territories, but, as expected, the Russian military is learning and adapting. In fact, Russian milblogger Military Informant just said, “There is progress, provided that the enemy does not sharply increase its attacks.” So today we're looking at the four ways Russia is trying to mitigate the impact of the Ukrainian middle strike campaign: stopping traffic, mobile counter drone teams, jamming Starlink and passive measures.
Starlink jammer article: https://united24media.com/war-....in-ukraine/inside-ru
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Be sure to check out @habitual_linecrosser here on YouTube across social media.
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#ukrainewar #airdefense #military #army #usarmy #missiledefense #patriot #kyiv #drones
Russian mobilization hasn't ever stopped
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There’s a lot of speculation that Putin will order a mobilization in the coming months to backfill troop losses in Ukraine. But here’s the thing, it’s already happening and has been for some time.
The challenge Putin faces right now is that they’re running out of people they would prefer to send to war, the undesirables, and they’re stuck having to explain why they need so many more soldiers while telling the population that they’re winning the war and advancing on all fronts.
Sources
https://kyivindependent.com/ru....ssia-beginning-addit
https://www.rusi.org/explore-o....ur-research/publicat
https://t.me/regnum_na/89585
https://t.me/dshrg2/5661
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The dynamics of this war are shifting by the day
We’re joined today by Rob Lee. Rob is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and in my opinion, one of the leading American analysts of the war. We talk through his recent trip to the front where he explains how logistics vehicles are now essentially disposable, where Ukraine may attempt offensive operations this year and details on how the Middle Strike campaign is playing out right now.
We just scratched the surface here so you can hear more of Rob’s insights at Two Marines on Substack and his new podcast Ukraine Military history which covers the strategy, intel and defense tech of this conflict.
https://x.com/RALee85
https://twomarines.substack.com/
https://www.youtube.com/@UkraineMilitaryHistory
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Unclassified Podcast
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I can't believe they're still doing this
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Russia just got called out by their own side for using AI to fake reports of battlefield progress. This isn’t some random small account either. It’s the Ministry of Defense releasing footage to support claims made to President Putin today.
Sources
https://t.me/tass_agency/400681
https://t.me/milinfolive/181585
https://t.me/creamy_caprice/13086
https://www.creamy-caprice.net/
https://t.me/romanov_92/56555
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/vo....lodymyr-zelensky-sta
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These jets were loaded up to attack Ukraine
Defense Tech News
https://www.defensetechnews.io/
https://www.youtube.com/@UCZqVYM3Rbd1a8DnKcqEdUEA
Overnight a Ukrainian missile strike destroyed four Su-34 fighter bombers at an airfield 370km from the front. Marking one of the largest losses of Russian aircraft in a single mission in over a year. Even better, these were loaded up with bombs ready to launch into Ukraine.
We also have the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps announcing the completion of phase four of Operation Vivaldi, their counteroffensive in the east. Saying they’ve now liberated nearly 300km of territory and eliminated 8,000 Russian soldiers.
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Sources
https://kyivindependent.com/uk....raine-hits-6-russian
https://x.com/avivector/status..../2110665837749129689
https://t.me/milinfolive/181495
https://t.me/romanov_92/56536
https://t.me/romanov_92/56533
https://t.me/bomber_fighter/26852
https://t.me/dshrg2/5777
https://www.bloomberg.com/news..../articles/2026-10-15
https://t.me/ab3brigade/15605
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Crazy they keep walking that same path
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This is a Russian soldiers view of the approaches to Dobropillia. Not usually something the Kremlin likes to have released, because there are bodies of Russian soldiers everywhere. We saw this same view from above a few days ago as Azov showed how one after another, Russian soldiers kept trying and failing to take the same deadly route.
This is one of the most deadly sections of the front and Russia is forced to advance there because their offensive further north was snubbed out during Operation Vivaldi. Which hopefully works in Ukraine’s favor as the newest round of peace talks look to begin.
Source footage
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat....us/21128820239917384
https://x.com/saintjavelin/sta....tus/2112178879880216
Sources
https://t.me/dva_majors/100754
https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/22565
https://t.me/azov_brigade_ngu/1985
https://x.com/Mylovanov/status..../2112502079365193934
https://www.wsj.com/world/musk-ordered-starlink-slowdown-that-crippled-ukraines-drones-and-sowed-panic-in-kyiv-f907aab0?mod=Searchresults&pos=3&page=1
https://www.washingtonpost.com..../opinions/2026/10/21
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Can't imagine fighting in there
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Looks like the war in Ukraine is moving underground. A Ukrainian unit today released this footage showing offensive operations in a tunnel where they say they ambushed Russian soldiers, some who had been living underground for weeks, even months.
We’ve seen these maneuvers before from the Russian side but this marks the first publicly known Ukrainian underground advance, and it looks like they’re just getting started.
Sources
https://t.me/khartiia/4843
https://t.me/legionoffreedom/2017
https://www.theatlantic.com/na....tional-security/2026
https://www.wsj.com/world/euro....pe/the-subterranean-
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Putin is testing how far he can push NATO
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NATO jets just shot down what were likely Russian drones in Romanian airspace. Ukraine carried out their largest ever drone attack on St. Petersburg with a major refinery going up in flames. And Ukraine released new footage dispelling Russian claims of advances in the south, “Russian troops continue to die for a picture for propaganda.”
Sources
https://www.dw.com/en/romanian....-fighter-jets-shoot-
https://www.ft.com/content/734....dad42-2eef-4a70-8947
https://kyivindependent.com/fl....ames-explosions-repo
https://t.me/romanov_92/56557
https://t.me/azov_media/8879
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Russia just keeps sending guys forward
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10,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded so far in October with most of them in the exact direction that Russian leadership lied about this past week. In fact we’ve got some footage from the Dobropillia direction that was just released showing the fields covered in Russian bodies after they try again and again to advance along the same deadly route, only to be met by Ukrainian drones.
Sources
https://t.me/robert_magyar/2913
https://t.me/azov_media/8881
https://x.com/KofmanMichael/st....atus/211216766278903
https://t.me/romanov_92/56616
https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status..../2112235078960976026
https://www.bloomberg.com/news..../articles/2026-10-18
https://kyivindependent.com/it....s-significant-ukrain
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Putin is standing in the way of peace
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Looks like Putin has rejected Zelensky’s ceasefire proposal but accepted one from Melania Trump. Didn't expect that one today but it's good news for the people of Oleshky.
Sources
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/....2112866119132291312?
https://t.me/tass_agency/401818
https://yougov.com/en-us/artic....les/55803-support-fo
https://kyivindependent.com/as....-trump-turns-toward-
https://www.whitehouse.gov/bri....efings-statements/20
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Lukashenko is walking a political tightrope. After reportedly disabling the Belarusian repeaters used to help guide Russian drone attacks into Ukraine, he responded with fiery rhetoric aimed at showing strength without actually escalating. In this video, we examine why Belarus backed down, how Putin is increasing pressure on Minsk, why Zelensky’s warning appears to have worked, and what comes next as Ukraine prepares a major 40-day campaign to increase pressure on Russia. We also cover new European military aid, Russia’s growing fuel shortages, Trump’s latest comments on Ukraine, Tucker Carlson’s latest controversy, and what all of it means for the broader trajectory of the war.
#Ukraine #Russia #Belarus #Lukashenko #Zelensky #Putin #NATO #Poland #Trump #UkraineWar
Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed that the United States is stepping back from direct participation in Ukraine peace negotiations unless “the dynamics change.” Critics of the talks say the diplomatic process had become a dead end — or worse, a strategic advantage for Russia. Former Ambassador Michael McFaul called the effort a complete failure, arguing the U.S. made concession after concession while getting nothing meaningful in return. Others, including Anne Applebaum and Michael MacKay, argue that ending what they describe as a “fake peace process” may actually strengthen Ukraine’s position rather than weaken it. Meanwhile, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges says the battlefield momentum has shifted irreversibly toward Ukraine, raising a larger question: was America’s diplomatic strategy slowing down the inevitable?
#Ukraine #Russia #Rubio #NATO #Putin #Zelensky #UkraineWar #MarcoRubio #Geopolitics #RussiaUkraineWar
Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points.
***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains
Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes
Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes
YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Profe....ssor-Gerdes/membersh
🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine
https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/
*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****
🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience
Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)
https://a.co/iodWsUK
Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK
https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...
Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA
https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html
Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information
https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html
🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:
https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20
🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/
***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***
🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes
🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.
🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE
🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.
🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email professorgerdesyt@gmail.com
#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR
Zelensky says Ukraine has intelligence suggesting Russia may be pressuring Belarus into opening a new front against Ukraine or even threatening NATO territory through the Suwałki Gap. In this video, we break down what the possible northern threat could look like, why Chernihiv and Kyiv matter strategically, and what Zelensky revealed about alleged Russian plans targeting Ukrainian leadership. We also examine new EU drone funding for Ukraine, Russian claims about Ukrainian information warfare inside Russia, the latest tribunal developments against Putin, ongoing Kremlin nuclear saber-rattling around the Sarmat missile, and the return of Ukrainian POWs after years in captivity.
Chapters:
00:00 Zelensky Warns About New Threat
00:19 Could Belarus Become Another Front?
01:00 Why Putin Would Want Belarus Involved
01:22 NATO And The Suwałki Gap Concern
02:06 Mapping The Northern Threat
03:10 Zelensky Details Russian Pressure On Belarus
03:35 Alleged Russian Decapitation Strike Plans
04:27 Threats Against Ukrainian Leadership
04:43 EU Preparing Massive Drone Funding
05:32 Ukraine’s “Fair Response” To Russian Strikes
06:02 Russia Claims Ukraine Is Targeting Telegram Channels
07:34 Are Russian Milbloggers Being Targeted?
08:21 New International Tribunal Against Putin
08:56 Russian Drone Crashes During Ceremony
09:37 Kremlin Escalates Nuclear Threats Again
10:50 Analysts Question Sarmat Missile Test
11:24 Ukrainian POWs Return Home
11:51 Belgium Protests Over Retirement Age
12:42 Final Thoughts
Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points.
#Ukraine #Russia #Belarus #Zelensky #Putin #NATO #Kyiv #SuwalkiGap #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Geopolitics #MilitaryAnalysis #Europe #WarNews #Gerdes
***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains
Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes
Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes
YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Profe....ssor-Gerdes/membersh
🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine
https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/
*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****
🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience
Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)
https://a.co/iodWsUK
Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK
https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...
Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA
https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html
Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information
https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html
🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:
https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20
🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/
***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***
🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes
🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.
🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE
🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.
🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email professorgerdesyt@gmail.com
#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR
Ukraine sent 440 drones toward Russia and occupied territory overnight—more than three times the number Russia sent toward Ukraine. And enough got through to hit a major refinery 1,300 kilometers from the border, another Wildberries logistics hub, infrastructure in Crimea, and Russian military targets.
The overnight strikes were only part of the story. Russia’s Orsk refinery may now remain shut for months, Ukraine says it struck Russian drone-control infrastructure in occupied Crimea, and new battlefield reporting shows Ukrainian forces reclaiming territory even as competing maps give sharply different pictures of Russian gains. I’ll separate what is confirmed, what is claimed, and what the available evidence actually shows.
0:00 Ukraine Sends 440 Drones Into Russia
0:56 What Ukraine Hit at Novorossiysk
3:21 Refinery and Wildberries Struck Deep Inside Russia
5:20 Crimea Loses Power as More Targets Are Hit
7:21 Russian Refinery Faces a Six-Month Shutdown
7:44 Russia’s Overnight Strikes on Ukraine
10:32 The Battlefield Maps Don’t Agree
12:05 Ukraine Reports 26 Settlements Liberated
12:24 Russia’s Critical Supply Route Under Attack
14:42 Ukraine Support Bridge
#Ukraine #Russia #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #Drones #Crimea #Novorossiysk #Wildberries #RussianRefinery
Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.
Here is the fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/
